H.Con.Res. 1 — Regarding consent to assemble outside the seat of government.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Regarding consent to assemble outside the seat of government. — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 33% puts enactment at <1%.

✓

passed the House

→

<1%

downstream: Senate + President

<1%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 59 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–87 (quartiles 51–65). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 33% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	11%	63 [47–89]	94%
passage	59%	56 [46–81]	92%
resolution	30%	63 [49–92]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Michelle Fischbach (R). Latest action (2025-01-06): Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).