H.Con.Res. 30 — Expressing support for local law enforcement officers.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Expressing support for local law enforcement officers. — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 48% puts enactment at <1%.

✓

passed the House

→

<1%

downstream: Senate + President

<1%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–95 (quartiles 52–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 48% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	11%	72 [51–96]	97%
passage	59%	64 [48–94]	94%
resolution	30%	69 [49–96]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mike Ezell (R). Latest action (2025-05-20): Star Print ordered on the referred concurrent resolution.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).