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H.Con.Res. 58 — Denouncing the horrors of socialism.
1%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Denouncing the horrors of socialism. — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 35% puts enactment at 1%.
→
1%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 59 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–90
(quartiles 51–69). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 35%
(simple-majority P = 93%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 11% |
59 [47–90] |
93% |
| passage | 59% |
57 [46–84] |
92% |
| resolution | 30% |
63 [47–93] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Latest action (2025-12-01):
Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).