H.Con.Res. 84 — Directing the President pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to remove United States Armed Forces from Lebanon.

—becomes law high confidencepending: House recent_floor

Directing the President pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Re… — active on the floor; — to reach the floor, — to become law.

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reaches a floor vote

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passes if voted (stage model)

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survives downstream

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becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 328 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 198–417 (quartiles 263–400). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	34%	270 [127–406]	80%
suspension	66%	359 [228–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Rashida Tlaib (D). Latest action (2026-06-04): Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).