H.Con.Res. 86 — Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers R… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 37% puts enactment at <1%.

✓

passed the House

→

<1%

downstream: Senate + President

<1%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 57 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 21–92 (quartiles 46–71). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 37% (simple-majority P = 61%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	11%	61 [29–92]	73%
passage	59%	53 [19–89]	49%
resolution	30%	63 [31–94]	80%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gregory W. Meeks (D). Latest action (2026-06-04): Received in the Senate and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).