H.J.Res. 1 — Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to require that the Supreme Court of the United States be composed of nine justices.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to re… — would clear the House (83%) but only 7% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

10%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 83% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 254 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 182–395 (quartiles 210–303). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	82%	243 [179–373]	80%
suspension	18%	305 [208–412]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Andy Biggs (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 15 - 8.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).