H.J.Res. 139 — Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States requiring a balanced budget for the Federal Government.

—becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States requi… — on the calendar, quiet for 80 days; — to reach the floor, — to become law.

—

reaches a floor vote

—

passes if voted (stage model)

—

survives downstream

—

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 261 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 186–397 (quartiles 211–330). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	82%	255 [181–386]	83%
suspension	18%	287 [205–410]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Andy Biggs (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): On motion to suspend the rules and pass the resolution Failed by the Yeas and Nays: (2/3 required): 211 - 207 (Roll no. 95).
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).