H.J.Res. 59 — Disapproving the rule submitted by the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection relating to "Overdraft Lending: Very Large Financial Institutions".

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Disapproving the rule submitted by the Bureau of Consumer Financial P… — would clear the House (92%) but only 1% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 269 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–407 (quartiles 212–330). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	82%	257 [205–382]	90%
suspension	18%	324 [213–416]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: J. French Hill (R). Latest action (2025-03-21): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 16.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).