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H.J.Res. 72 — Relating to a national emergency by the President on February 1, 2025.
15%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Relating to a national emergency by the President on February 1, 2025. — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 58% puts enactment at 15%.
→
15%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–96
(quartiles 53–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 58%
(simple-majority P = 85%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 2% |
65 [41–95] |
78% |
| passage | 7% |
61 [37–93] |
73% |
| resolution | 90% |
68 [40–96] |
87% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Gregory W. Meeks (D). Latest action (2026-02-12):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Finance.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).