H.R. 1013 — Retirement Fairness for Charities and Educational Institutions Act of 2025

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Retirement Fairness for Charities and Educational Instituti… — on the calendar, quiet for 190 days; 21% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

21%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

20%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 21% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 325 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 243–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	291 [208–408]	94%
suspension	62%	345 [215–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Frank D. Lucas (R). Latest action (2025-11-28): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 340.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).