H.R. 1028 — Protection of Women in Olympic and Amateur Sports Act of 2026

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Protection of Women in Olympic and Amateur Sports Act — would clear the House (95%, 73 cosponsors) but only 13% to ever get the vote.

13%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

14%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 13% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 298 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 219–390). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	260 [204–389]	90%
suspension	62%	321 [213–418]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: W. Gregory Steube (R). Latest action (2026-02-17): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 423.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).