← all forecasts
H.R. 1156 — Pandemic Unemployment Fraud Enforcement Act
3%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Pandemic Unemployment Fraud Enforcement Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 28% puts enactment at 3%.
→
3%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 56 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–80
(quartiles 51–61). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 28%
(simple-majority P = 92%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
57 [44–82] |
91% |
| passage | 81% |
56 [46–80] |
93% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Jason Smith (R). Latest action (2025-03-13):
Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 29.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).