H.R. 1163 — Prove It Act

10%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Prove It Act — on the calendar, quiet for 33 days; 38% to reach the floor, 10% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

10%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 291 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–414 (quartiles 215–384). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	253 [204–378]	88%
suspension	62%	313 [211–415]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Brad Finstad (R). Latest action (2026-05-04): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 552.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).