H.R. 1276 — To remove restrictions from a parcel of land in Paducah, Kentucky.

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

To remove restrictions from a parcel of land in Paducah, Kentucky. — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 43% puts enactment at 11%.

✓

passed the House

→

11%

downstream: Senate + President

11%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–91 (quartiles 52–76). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 43% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	67 [49–94]	95%
passage	81%	61 [46–90]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: James Comer (R). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).