H.R. 1295 — Reorganizing Government Act of 2025

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Reorganizing Government Act — would clear the House (95%) but only 15% to ever get the vote.

15%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

28%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 15% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 293 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–414 (quartiles 216–385). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	254 [205–374]	90%
suspension	62%	317 [211–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: James Comer (R). Latest action (2026-01-27): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 397.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).