H.R. 1319 — Modern Worker Empowerment Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Modern Worker Empowerment Act — would clear the House (90%, 23 cosponsors) but only 7% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 90% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 289 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 202–412 (quartiles 215–375). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	259 [189–390]	82%
suspension	62%	307 [207–414]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Kevin Kiley (I). Latest action (2026-02-20): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 431.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).