H.R. 1382 — To amend the Federal Water Pollution Control Act with respect to San Francisco Bay restoration, and for other purposes.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To amend the Federal Water Pollution Control Act — would clear the House (93%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

20%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 316 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 203–416 (quartiles 249–392). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	277 [161–411]	83%
suspension	62%	340 [219–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jared Huffman (D). Latest action (2025-02-26): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 40 - 13.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).