H.R. 1493 — To reauthorize and make improvements to Federal programs relating to the prevention, detection, and treatment of traumatic brain injuries, and for other purposes.

12%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To reauthorize and make improvements to Federal programs relating to… — reported and queued; 37% to reach the floor, 12% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

32%

survives downstream

12%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 336 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 212–418 (quartiles 278–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	307 [201–415]	94%
suspension	62%	353 [224–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Frank Pallone, Jr. (D). Latest action (2026-05-21): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 43 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).