H.R. 151 — Equal Representation Act of 2025

12%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Equal Representation Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 46 days); 94% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

94%

passes if voted (stage model)

28%

survives downstream

12%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 294 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–415 (quartiles 217–392). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	256 [202–386]	89%
suspension	62%	317 [211–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Chuck Edwards (R). Latest action (2026-04-21): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 536.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).