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H.R. 1531 — PROTECT Taiwan Act
10%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
PROTECT Taiwan Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 65% puts enactment at 10%.
→
10%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 72 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–97
(quartiles 56–91). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 65%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
75 [51–97] |
96% |
| passage | 81% |
71 [47–97] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Frank D. Lucas (R). Latest action (2026-02-11):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).