H.R. 161 — New Source Review Permitting Improvement Act

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

New Source Review Permitting Improvement Act — on the calendar, quiet for 39 days; 32% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

32%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 90% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 32% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 267 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 202–396 (quartiles 212–339). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	249 [199–374]	87%
suspension	62%	277 [203–399]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: H. Morgan Griffith (R). Latest action (2026-04-28): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 542.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).