H.R. 1669 — To amend the Public Health Service Act to reauthorize the Stop, Observe, Ask, and Respond to Health and Wellness Training Program.

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

To amend the Public Health Service Act — would clear the House (97%) but only 13% to ever get the vote.

13%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

20%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 13% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 326 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–416 (quartiles 259–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	301 [202–412]	93%
suspension	62%	341 [219–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Steve Cohen (D). Latest action (2025-11-18): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 331.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).