H.R. 1689 — To require the Secretary of Homeland Security to designate Haiti for temporary protected status.

13%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

To require the Secretary of Homeland Security to designate Haiti for… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 62% puts enactment at 13%.

✓

passed the House

→

13%

downstream: Senate + President

13%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 39–96 (quartiles 54–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 62% (simple-majority P = 86%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	70 [43–96]	90%
passage	81%	67 [38–95]	85%

Receipts

Sponsor: Laura Gillen (D). Latest action (2026-04-21): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 374.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).