H.R. 1729 — Bolts Ditch Act

16%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Bolts Ditch Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 55% puts enactment at 16%.

✓

passed the House

→

16%

downstream: Senate + President

16%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 37–96 (quartiles 53–83). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 55% (simple-majority P = 89%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	70 [39–97]	91%
passage	81%	66 [37–96]	88%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joe Neguse (D). Latest action (2025-07-15): Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).