H.R. 1731 — Standard FEES Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Standard FEES Act — reported and queued, quiet for 122 days; 28% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 306 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–415 (quartiles 222–391). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	276 [197–401]	90%
suspension	62%	325 [211–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gary J. Palmer (R). Latest action (2026-02-04): Reported by the Committee on Energy and Commerce. H. Rept. 119-488, Part I.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).