H.R. 1755 — Timely and Accurate Benefits Act

13%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Timely and Accurate Benefits Act — reported and queued, quiet for 38 days; 37% to reach the floor, 13% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

35%

survives downstream

13%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 302 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 219–394). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	255 [198–381]	89%
suspension	62%	330 [213–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: William R. Timmons IV (R). Latest action (2026-04-29): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 40 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).