H.R. 178 — To require the Secretary of Agriculture to carry out activities to suppress wildfires, and for other purposes.

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To require the Secretary of Agriculture to carry out activities to su… — would clear the House (95%) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 303 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 221–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	261 [205–383]	90%
suspension	62%	329 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Tom McClintock (R). Latest action (2026-01-08): Reported (Amended) by the Committee on Natural Resources. H. Rept. 119-429, Part I.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).