H.R. 1789 — Promptly Ending Political Prosecutions and Executive Retaliation Act of 2025

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Promptly Ending Political Prosecutions and Executive Retali… — would clear the House (92%) but only 4% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 291 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–415 (quartiles 216–382). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	246 [186–375]	82%
suspension	62%	318 [211–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Russell Fry (R). Latest action (2025-03-21): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 18.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).