H.R. 186 — Hershel Woody Williams National Medal of Honor Monument Location Act

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Hershel Woody Williams National Medal of Honor Monument Loc… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 48% puts enactment at 11%.

✓

passed the House

→

11%

downstream: Senate + President

11%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–95 (quartiles 52–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 48% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	69 [50–96]	96%
passage	81%	65 [48–94]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Blake D. Moore (R). Latest action (2025-12-09): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on National Parks. Hearings held.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).