H.R. 1869 — Protecting American Industry and Labor from International Trade Crimes Act of 2025

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Protecting American Industry and Labor from International T… — would clear the House (97%, 44 cosponsors) but only 1% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

29%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 323 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 212–416 (quartiles 245–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	307 [207–414]	95%
suspension	62%	333 [215–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ashley Hinson (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 23 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).