H.R. 1897 — ESA Amendments Act of 2025

1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

ESA Amendments Act — reported and queued, quiet for 47 days; 28% to reach the floor, 1% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 90% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 264 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 203–394 (quartiles 212–333). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	249 [203–374]	89%
suspension	62%	274 [203–398]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bruce Westerman (R). Latest action (2026-04-20): Rules Committee Resolution H. Res. 1189 Reported to House. Rule provides for consideration of H.R. 4690, H. Res. 1182, H.R. 1897 and H.R. 5587. The resolution provides for consideration of H.R. 4690, H. Res. 1182, H.R. 1897, and H.R. 5587 under a closed rule with one hour of general debate on each m
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).