H.R. 204 — ACRES Act

10%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

ACRES Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 43% puts enactment at 10%.

✓

passed the House

→

10%

downstream: Senate + President

10%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–92 (quartiles 52–77). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 43% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	65 [44–96]	92%
passage	81%	62 [47–91]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Thomas P. Tiffany (R). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).