H.R. 2069 — Stop Secret Spending Act of 2025

36%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Stop Secret Spending Act — real floor momentum (58% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 80 days); 97% if called.

58%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

64%

survives downstream

36%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 58% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 321 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 238–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	280 [205–403]	93%
suspension	62%	346 [219–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Barry Moore (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 40 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).