H.R. 2072 — To require the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to extend the time period during which licensees are required to commence construction of certain hydropower projects.

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

To require the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to extend the tim… — would clear the House (96%) but only 15% to ever get the vote.

15%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

21%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 15% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 317 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 234–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	276 [196–400]	91%
suspension	62%	342 [216–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Dan Newhouse (R). Latest action (2026-02-02): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 408.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).