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H.R. 21 — Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act
8%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 40% puts enactment at 8%.
→
8%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 60 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–88
(quartiles 51–72). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 40%
(simple-majority P = 90%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
61 [42–88] |
88% |
| passage | 81% |
60 [44–88] |
91% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Ann Wagner (R). Latest action (2025-01-24):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).