H.R. 2130 — Tribal Trust Land Homeownership Act of 2025

10%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Tribal Trust Land Homeownership Act — on the calendar, quiet for 103 days; 38% to reach the floor, 10% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

26%

survives downstream

10%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 299 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–415 (quartiles 219–386). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	260 [188–389]	87%
suspension	62%	323 [213–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Dusty Johnson (R). Latest action (2026-02-23): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 439.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).