H.R. 2148 — Veteran Caregiver Reeducation, Reemployment, and Retirement Act

6%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Veteran Caregiver Reeducation, Reemployment, and Retirement… — would clear the House (97%) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

33%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 343 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 214–417 (quartiles 293–407). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	310 [201–415]	93%
suspension	62%	363 [233–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joseph D. Morelle (D). Latest action (2026-02-12): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).