H.R. 2158 — Countering Transnational Repression Act of 2025

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Countering Transnational Repression Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 7% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

30%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 323 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 241–402). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	283 [195–405]	90%
suspension	62%	347 [220–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: August Pfluger (R). Latest action (2025-04-09): Ordered to be Reported by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).