H.R. 2159 — Count the Crimes to Cut Act

9%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Count the Crimes to Cut Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 49% puts enactment at 9%.

✓

passed the House

→

downstream: Senate + President

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–96 (quartiles 53–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	66 [44–95]	91%
passage	81%	67 [45–96]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Chip Roy (R). Latest action (2026-04-14): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 370.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).