H.R. 2261 — Strengthening Oversight of DHS Intelligence Act

17%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Strengthening Oversight of DHS Intelligence Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 70% puts enactment at 17%.

✓

passed the House

→

17%

downstream: Senate + President

17%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 72 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–97 (quartiles 57–89). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 70% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	74 [45–97]	91%
passage	81%	71 [45–97]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Pablo José Hernández (D). Latest action (2025-11-18): Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).