H.R. 2270 — Empowering Employer Child and Elder Care Solutions Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Empowering Employer Child and Elder Care Solutions Act — would clear the House (94%) but only 6% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 297 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–412 (quartiles 217–382). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	271 [204–394]	91%
suspension	62%	313 [209–415]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mark B. Messmer (R). Latest action (2026-01-13): POSTPONED PROCEEDINGS - Pursuant to clause 1(c) of rule XIX, the Chair announced that further proceedings on H.R. 2270 is postponed.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).