H.R. 2312 — Tipped Employee Protection Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Tipped Employee Protection Act — would clear the House (91%) but only 3% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 91% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 3% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 286 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 203–411 (quartiles 214–371). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	256 [197–370]	88%
suspension	62%	303 [206–414]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Steve Womack (R). Latest action (2026-01-13): POSTPONED PROCEEDINGS - Pursuant to clause 1(c) of rule XIX, the Chair announced that further proceedings on H.R. 2312 is postponed.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).