H.R. 2313 — Celestial Time Standardization Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Celestial Time Standardization Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 6% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 323 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 255–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	296 [195–414]	91%
suspension	62%	339 [219–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jennifer L. McClellan (D). Latest action (2025-04-29): Ordered to be Reported by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).