H.R. 2389 — Quinault Indian Nation Land Transfer Act

35%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Quinault Indian Nation Land Transfer Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 55% puts enactment at 35%.

✓

passed the House

→

35%

downstream: Senate + President

35%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 38–96 (quartiles 54–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 55% (simple-majority P = 88%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	67 [36–95]	88%
passage	81%	66 [38–96]	88%

Receipts

Sponsor: Emily Randall (D). Latest action (2026-06-03): Committee on Indian Affairs. Hearings held.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).