H.R. 2405 — The White Oak Resilience Act

11%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

The White Oak Resilience Act — reported and queued, quiet for 149 days; 30% to reach the floor, 11% to become law.

30%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

39%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 30% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 315 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 230–396). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	266 [204–395]	90%
suspension	62%	345 [218–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Andy Barr (R). Latest action (2026-01-08): Reported (Amended) by the Committee on Natural Resources. H. Rept. 119-434, Part I.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).