H.R. 2409 — Guidance Clarity Act of 2025

10%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Guidance Clarity Act — on the calendar, quiet for 74 days; 38% to reach the floor, 10% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

10%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 314 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 235–398). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	276 [199–399]	90%
suspension	62%	338 [215–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Eric Burlison (R). Latest action (2026-03-24): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 490.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).