H.R. 2481 — Romance Scam Prevention Act

16%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Romance Scam Prevention Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 69% puts enactment at 16%.

✓

passed the House

→

16%

downstream: Senate + President

16%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 74 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 51–97 (quartiles 58–91). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 69% (simple-majority P = 97%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	76 [51–98]	98%
passage	81%	73 [51–97]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: David G. Valadao (R). Latest action (2025-06-24): Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).