H.R. 2484 — Seniors’ Access to Critical Medications Act of 2025

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Seniors’ Access to Critical Medications Act — would clear the House (96%, 25 cosponsors) but only 2% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

33%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 2% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 322 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 247–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	292 [204–410]	92%
suspension	62%	340 [219–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Diana Harshbarger (R). Latest action (2025-04-29): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 38 - 7.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).