← all forecasts
H.R. 249 — To redesignate certain facilities at Paterson Great Falls National Historical Park in honor of Congressman Bill Pascrell, Jr.
16%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
To redesignate certain facilities at Paterson Great Falls National Hi… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 56% puts enactment at 16%.
→
16%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–96
(quartiles 54–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 56%
(simple-majority P = 91%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
72 [45–97] |
93% |
| passage | 81% |
66 [39–96] |
90% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Frank Pallone, Jr. (D). Latest action (2025-12-09):
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on National Parks. Hearings held.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).