← all forecasts
H.R. 2492 — Fire Safe Electrical Corridors Act of 2025
20%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Fire Safe Electrical Corridors Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 58% puts enactment at 20%.
→
20%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 42–97
(quartiles 54–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 58%
(simple-majority P = 91%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
72 [47–97] |
94% |
| passage | 81% |
67 [40–97] |
91% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Salud O. Carbajal (D). Latest action (2025-05-14):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).